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State Statistics Committee: Inflation - 2.6%

Baku / 16.10.19 / Turan: For nine months of this year, consumer prices in Azerbaijan rose by 2.6% year on year, the State Statistics Committee (SSC) said.

During the reporting period, food products rose on average by 3.5%, non-food products - 1.3%, and paid services to the population - 2.4%.

Transparency...

Look at the comparison:

a) Baku / 09.10.19 / Turan: In September 2019, budget revenues from the State Customs Committee amounted to 376 million 759 thousand manat.

Compared to the same period last year, budget revenues increased by 47 million 349 thousand manat or 14.3%.

b) Baku / 10.03.19 / Turan: The SOCAR carbamide plant sold about 45 thousand tons of goods abroad in June-July this year. Moreover, the export cost of the fertilizer is 35% cheaper than domestic sales.

According to the State Customs Committee, from the sale of urea to Turkey (22 193 tons), Ukraine (993.6 tons), Romania (2825.8 tons), Bulgaria (10 166.62 tons) and Russia (8 752.5 tons) 7 million 189 thousand US dollars were received. The product was exported at a price of $ 159.99 / ton or 272 manat / ton. In July, the state-owned Aqrolizinq OJSC announced the conclusion of an agreement by SOCAR to supply 25 thousand tons of urea fertilizers at a price of 420 manat per ton, excluding transportation costs. Thus, the cost of urea for local agricultural needs is 148 manat 35% higher than its export value.

Labor figures

August 1:

- the number of employees (1 million 613.8 thousand people) in Azerbaijan remained at the level of the previous month,

- average monthly salary (587.7 manat) increased only by 0.4%, the State Statistics Committee reports.

Reality:

According to official figures, in July the number of employees in the public sector (902.4 thousand people) decreased by 1 thousand people. The number of workers in the private sector grew just as much... 

due to the legalization of the hidden employees. 

Result: increase in unemployment. Should we add anything else? Facts are facts:

Edited on Sep, 17:

Turan: Local employment authorities registered about 71,000 unemployed on September 1, the State Statistics Committee (SSC) reports. This is the highest figure in two decades.

Compared to the beginning of this year, the number of people actively seeking work has grown 3.5 times. Nevertheless, according to the same official sources, the unemployment rate in the country remains virtually unchanged at about 5% (253 thousand people) of the economically active population.

No Comments - Poverty in Azerbaijan

The World Bank published an analysis of the economies of the countries of the South Caucasus, according to which the poverty level in Azerbaijan is several times higher than official government data.

In the analytical review titled "The South Caucasus in Motion" there are data on regions of Azerbaijan in 2015 - in the year of a double collapse of the national currency against freely convertible currencies. In Baku, 16% of the population lived below the poverty line. At the same time, this is the lowest poverty rate in the country. In other cities, one of every four lived below the poverty line. In the Ganja-Gazakh economic region, this indicator reached 33%. In rural areas, the poverty rate was 30%. The official indicator of the poverty level in the country that year, as well as in the subsequent period, was about 5%.

Source: Turan IA

Azerbaijan in oil figures

Ò  %53.1 of GDP

Ò  %58 of Budget income

Ò  %90 of export

Ò  %90 of foreign investments into the oil industry shows dependency of country on oil

According to OPEC data on oil production:

              - In 2095 S.Arabia

              - In 2125 United Arab Emirates

              - In 2135 Kuwait

              - In 2025 Azerbaijan will finish its oil production

I am really interested what kind of plan does the government have when the oil will be finished, since major portion of the budget comes from the SOFAZ (almost half) and the rest are invested into the non-liquid actives. I will have some data later on it as well... 

GDP in 2019

Over the five months of this year, gross domestic product was made in Azerbaijan for a total of 30.6 billion manat ($ 18 billion), which is 2.2% more than in the comparable period of 2018, the State Statistics Committee reports.

For the first time in many years, the share of taxes on goods produced in the country and imports reached 9.3%. For comparison, we note that for the same period last year, this figure was 7%. The share of industry in the structure of GDP over the five months of this year was 46%, trade - 9.9%, transport - 6.4%, construction - 5.9%, agriculture - 3.7%, etc.

Let's put some math...

18/5=3.6 is monthly average so, for 2019 our expectation is 3.6x12= $ 43.2 bln

GDP per capita 4.32 thousands whereas it was 7.2 in 2010s. This is reality where we stand...

Let's dig deeper, here is update:

Over the five months of this year, the surplus on foreign trade operations in Azerbaijan amounted to 2,780.9 million USD, which is 20.9% less than in the comparable period of 2018, the State Customs Committee said.

The volume of import-export operations in January-May of this year with 174 countries of the world amounted to $ 14,449.2 million, which is 28.7% more than in the same period of 2018. During this period, imports of goods ($ 5,834.1 million) increased by 51.3%. The growth of import indicators is also associated with the intensification of investment activities of the State Oil Fund. Over the specified period the Fund bought gold bars worth $ 1.4 billion. Due to this and other factors, the share of the public sector in the import structure increased from 15.5% ($ 598.3 million) to 39.7% ($ 2,315.8 million).

Do we really have 2.2% growth???

Azerbaijan increases PPP

Azerbaijan increases purchasing power parity (PPP) of the minimum wage (250 manat or $ 147) from September 1 of this year will affect 950,000 workers, including 350,000 in the private sector. To finance this growth, annually 780 million manat will be required from the state budget. This year alone, the government will send 245 million manat for these purposes.

In other words, it will be increased from 180 manat to 250 manat. 70 manats for $ 42 from $ 105. Big myth lose its weight on figures...